A study titled “Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Prevalence Projection in 2040: A Less Rare Disease” states that ALS, also known as Lou Gehrig’s Disease, will increase worldwide by 2040.
First identified in 1869 by French neurologist Jean-Martin Charcot, he was the first to publish detailed clinical and pathological descriptions about ALS and officially recognized the disease as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.” The disease attacks nerve cells responsible for movement, having a paralyzing effect on the patient, and currently affects roughly 7 to 9 people per 100,000 worldwide. But according to the study, that number is set to rise sharply in the next 15 years.
Unlike projections for other diseases, these estimates are based on survival rates and take into account new technologies, medications, and therapies. ALS prevalence is expected to rise by nearly 25% globally by 2040, with over 55% of the increase attributed to population aging, and it is predicted to be higher among individuals aged 60 or older.
Thanks to significant advancements in research, improved medical care, healthcare facilities, and technological innovations that enhance breathing and nutrition equipment, people with ALS now have the opportunity to live longer lives than before. For patients, families, and advocacy organizations, the study reinforces a long-standing message: ALS is not only a devastating diagnosis, it is a growing public health challenge.
The study estimates that countries may see a 20 to 50% increase, with larger countries such as the U.S., Japan, and China seeing the largest rise in numbers, suggesting ALS may not be as rare as it once was. The study goes on to point out that Europe will see a 20% increase and a 34% increase from 2015 to 2040, and a 31% increase globally for the countries included in the study, based on “These projections are based on the anticipated increase in the number of at- risk individuals due to the aging population the study states.”
The study shows that hospitals, specialists, home care services, caregivers, equipment needs, long-term care programs, and insurance companies could all face rising costs and resource demands in the future, with the impact on families growing even further.
“Public health policies should promptly allocate resources to ensure these patients receive the necessary care until a cure is found,” the paper concludes.
As alarming as these numbers might seem to some, it’s the advances in finding a cure for ALS that drive the leaps in research, supported by a connected global community pushed by a sense of urgency because of advances in artificial intelligence leading to improved survival rates that didn’t used to exist, and the developing technologies that have pushed research forward.
The full study can be read here.
Unless noted, all media by Chris Denny
